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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still