Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
