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Mounting apprehensions are present about the chance of armed conflict between East African neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a heated verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in the previous year that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the desire to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Region

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, the officer, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war followed, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the war was concluded – a action that won Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

But ties have later worsened anew.