Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
